Example Long-Term Perspective Assignments

Below is a sampling of the types of long-term projects on emerging ecnomies the Centennial Group team has conducted for governments, development organizations, and the private sector:

World 2050

This book takes a long-term perspective of economic and social outlook of the world to 2050. Its main focus is on the emerging and developing economies of today. But given the increasing interconnectedness of our world, it inevitably considers the likely evolution of the world economy as a whole. Given its long-term perspective, the book focuses on cross-cutting, intergenerational issues that often get overshadowed by the short-term crises and political preoccupations of the day.

India 2039

This study provides a perspective on where India could be in the year 2039 if it maintains similar economic growth rates as it has experienced recently, proposing that it could be one of the top three global economies in 30 years. This aspirational scenario is contrasted with a scenario under which the country gets mired in the middle-income trap and its growth peters out. This includes an in-depth analysis on how to combine a more agile and effective government, a more decisive and results oriented leadership and decentralization and accountability to people (Client: Asian Development Bank, 2008).

Asia 2050

This study highlights the pre-requisites and strategy for Asia as a whole to continue its rapid development through identification of the key mega-trends that are expected to have a dominant effect on the region, highlighting the fundamental changes required in response to the mega-trends and drivers in order for the region to sustain its recent over the next forty years and identification of policy and institutional instruments that would facilitate the desired transformation of the region. This includes a discussion on the importance of a radical reduction in the intensity of energy and natural resources use. (Client: Asian Development Bank).

Resilience Index

Centennial’s most significant statistical model is its patent-pending factor-analysis-based model for creating indices that compare and measure difficult-to-quantify macroeconomic traits across countries and years. It was originally designed for Centennial’s Financial Development and Strength Index, first published by Euromoney in 2008; it covers 170 countries over 15 years, incorporating 150 variables, and providing scores on 17 apex or sub-indices. (Misc. clients)

Mexico 2042

A New Vision for Mexico 2042 identifies the priority issues that could influence Mexico’s long-term economic trajectory, and outlines a balanced action program necessary to extricate Mexico from the middle income trap it has been mired in recently. It includes reforms and actions that would simultaneously achieve much higher and more inclusive growth, and thus would restore the sense of pride and optimism among Mexicans that has been eroding in recent years. (Anonymous client)

Africa 2050

Africa 2050 offers a bold vision of what could be – an Africa that meets the aspiration of its people and is catching up with the rest of the world in living standards and competitiveness. The book lays out a strategic framework and action agenda for realizing the bold vision. While the action agenda must be country-specific, Africa 2050 identifies 10 common priorities that cut across the continent and argues that realization of the vision depends ultimately on pragmatic leadership, the quality of governance and how institutions work. (JICA and GTZ)

Kazakhstan 2050

Based on a review of Kazakhstan’s socioeconomic development over the last 20 years and an assessment of the outlook of the global economy, this book explores how Kazakhstan can build the foundations for an inclusive modern society in seven priority areas by: building a strong human resource base; managing its energy resources sustainably; growing a green economy; pursuing balanced and efficient urban and regional development; creating a diversified, modern knowledge economy; becoming fully integrated with the rest of the world; and, underpinning all else, building effective and inclusive institutions. (Nazarbayev University)

Reform of the International Monetary System

Recognizing the weaknesses in the international monetary system (IMS) that helped produce the recent global economic crisis – and that hold the potential to create further crises, in late 2010, Michel Camdessus, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, and Alexandre Lamfalussy organized a group of eminent personalities – The Palais Royal Initiative – to evaluate the IMS and to propose changes that would be needed to help stabilize the system and reduce the likelihood of future failures. (Emerging Markets Forum)

Agriculture Transformation and Food Security 2040 in Indonesia

The study is part of a three country study (together with the Philippines and Vietnam). It assesses performance of the agricultural sector in Indonesia during the period 1980–2011, future prospects up to 2040 and food security in these countries and in the ASEAN region. Analysis of the past performance and likely future scenarios (both demand and supply) was carried out with the aid of the Centennial Group’s Global Growth Model after introducing several modifications to address the needs of the agricultural sector. Our modeling efforts were divided into two parts. The first part comprised a macro-economic analysis of future scenarios at the global level and for the three countries. The second part included analysis at the country level of future Total Factor Productivity (TFP), agricultural production and changes in national food consumption habits. (JICA)