The Euro-zone in crisis: Assessing the macro impact based on hard numbers.
The on-going debate on the euro-zone crisis mostly fails to disseminate hard numbers so that the order of magnitude of the problem gets lost.
The following tables display the cost of planned haircuts on peripherals for all EU countries, first in percentage of GDP and next in percentage of current tax revenues. Admittedly, Greece, Portugal appear heavily affected, no surprise here.
For other countries, as mentioned by some, the magnitude of the issue has to be put into perspective.
The line in red, “all countries”, gives the total impact for the EU as a whole, namely 0.6% of GDP and 1.3% of tax revenues.
% GDP
| Greece | Portugal | Ireland | Spain | Italy | Total exposure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haircut assumption: | 50.00% | 26.5% | 11.6% | 0.4% | 4.6% | |
| Greece | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.8% |
| Portugal | 0.4% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% |
| Ireland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Belgium | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| All countries | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Italy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| France | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Spain | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Germany | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Netherlands | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| United Kingdom | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Sweden | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Denmark | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
% Tax revenue
| Greece | Portugal | Ireland | Spain | Italy | Total exposure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haircut assumption: | 50.00% | 26.5% | 11.6% | 0.4% | 4.6% | |
| Greece | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.3% |
| Portugal | 0.1% | 7.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 8.1% |
| Ireland | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.4% |
| Belgium | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 2.0% |
| All countries | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| Italy | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| France | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Spain | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| Germany | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Netherlands | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| United Kingdom | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Sweden | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Denmark | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Sources: European Banking Authority the stress test exposure numbers; Eurostat for GDP and Tax revenue.